Electric load forecasting based on Long-Short-Term-Memory network via simplex optimizer during COVID-19

Electric load forecasting is a challenging research, which is of great significance to the safe and stable operation of power grid in epidemic period. In this paper, Long-Short-Term-Memory (LSTM) model with simplex optimizer is proposed to forecast the electric load for an enterprise during the COVID-19 pandemic. The forecasting process consists of data processing, LSTM network construction and optimization. Firstly, some data processing steps includes information quantifying, electric load data cleaning, correlation-coefficient-based medical data filtering, clustering-based medical data and electric load data filling. Then LSTM-Based electric load forecasting model of enterprise is established during the COVID-19 pandemic. On this basis, LSTM network is trained and parameters are optimized via simplex optimizer. Finally, an example of the electric load forecasting of an enterprise during the COVID-19 pandemic is investigated. The forecasting results show that the reduced number of iterations is about 25% and the improved forecasting accuracy is about 5.6%. These results can be used as a reference for resuming production of enterprises and planning of electric grid.

Mechanistic origin of different binding affinities of SARS-CoV and SARS-CoV-2 spike RBDs to human ACE2 (preprint)

The receptor-binding domain (RBD) of the SARS-CoV-2 spike protein mediates viral entry into host cells through binding to the cell-surface receptor angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 (ACE2). It has been shown that SARS-CoV-2 RBD (RBDCoV2) has a higher binding affinity to human ACE2 than its highly homologous SARS-CoV RBD (RBDCoV), for which the mechanistic reasons still remain to be elucidated. Here, we used the multiple-replica molecular dynamics (MD) simulations, molecular mechanics Poisson-Boltzmann surface area (MM-PBSA) binding free energy calculations, and interface residue contact network (IRCN) analysis approach to explore the mechanistic origin of different ACE2 binding affinities of these two RBDs. The results demonstrate that, when compared to the RBDCoV2-ACE2 complex, the RBDCoV-ACE2 complex features the enhanced overall structural fluctuations and inter-protein positional movements and increased conformational entropy and diversity. The inter-protein electrostatic attractive interactions are a dominant force in determining the high ACE2 affinities of both RBDs, while the significantly strengthened electrostatic forces of attraction of ACE2 to RBDCoV2 determine the higher ACE2 binding affinity of RBDCoV2 than of RBDCoV. Comprehensive comparative analyses of the residue binding free energy components and IRCNs reveal that, although any RBD residue substitution involved in the charge change can significantly impact the inter-protein electrostatic interaction strength, it is the substitutions at the RBD interface that lead to the overall stronger electrostatic attractive force of RBDCoV2-ACE2, which in turn not only tightens the interface packing and suppresses the dynamics of RBDCoV2-ACE2, but also enhances the ACE2 binding affinity of RBDCoV2 compared to that of RBDCoV. Since the RBD residue substitutions involving gain/loss of the positively/negatively charged residues, in particular those near/at the binding interfaces with the potential to form hydrogen bonds and/or salt bridges with ACE2, can greatly enhance the ACE2 binding affinity, the SARS-CoV-2 variants carrying such mutations should be paid special attention to.

An Unstoppable Marathon: Community Prevention and Residents' Sense of Security in the Period of Low Transmission (preprint)

Background: With more and more countries entering the phase of COVID-19 low transmission, there is an urgent need to study the implementation of community prevention in this stage. This study investigated the implementation of community prevention measures in China and whether residents consent they have adequate community protection during the Spring Festival of 2021, with exploring the differences in the sense of security caused by different measures.Methods: A cross-sectional survey was conducted in China from 4 to 26 February 2021. Convenient sampling strategy was adopted to recruit participators. Participants were asked to filled out the questions that assessed questionnaire on the implementation of community protection and residents' perception. Descriptive statistics were used to assess the public's attitudes. A binary logistic regression analysis was performed to identify the risk factors affecting the residents' attitudes.Results: A total of 2,361 residents filled out the questionnaire. The results showed 24.95% of community/village issued personal protective equipment, 62.98% implemented epidemic screening , and 46.59% implemented health propaganda and education of COVID-19. For people outside the community/village entering the community/village, 19.78% of community/village implemented that appointment of people are admitted, 4.57 implemented that only occupants are admitted. 1910 (80.90%) of residents agreed they acquire adequate community prevention during the Spring Festival. In addition, age of residents, “personal protective equipment will been issued by the community/village”, “resident epidemic screening is implemented by the community/village”, “health propaganda and education of COVID-19 is implemented by the community/village”, “appointment of people are admitted can enter the community/village”, “be satisfied with regularly cleaning and disinfecting by the community/village”, and “be satisfied with community service” were the mainly factors associated with residents’ attitudes.Conclusions: This research is based on an innovative perspective to explore whether residents perceive themselves to be adequately protected after experiencing measures; at the same time, the differences in the sense of security brought to residents by various measures were discussed, which can provide a reference for Chinese and global public health policy makers.

Inhibiting SARS-CoV-2 infection with lysosomal alkalizers

Understanding the SARS-CoV-2 virus? routes of infection, virus?host?protein interactions, and mechanisms of virus-induced cytopathic effects will greatly aid in the discovery and design of new therapeutics to treat COVID-19. Chloroquine and hydroxychloroquine, extensively explored as clinical agents for COVID-19, have multiple cellular effects including alkalizing lysosomes and blocking autophagy as well as exhibiting dose-limiting toxicities in patients. To identify an alternative lysosome-based drug repurposing opportunity we evaluated additional lysosomotropic compounds . We found that six of these compounds blocked the cytopathic effect of SARS-CoV-2 in Vero E6 cells with half-maximal effective concentration (EC50) values ranging from 2.0 to 13 ?M and selectivity indices (SIs;SI = CC50/EC50) ranging from 1.5- to >10-fold. We demonstrate how the compounds (1) blocked lysosome functioning and autophagy, (2) prevented pseudotyped particle entry, (3) increased lysosomal pH, and (4) that ROC-325 reduced viral titers in the EpiAirway 3D tissue model. Consistent with these findings, the siRNA knockdown of ATP6V0D1 blocked the HCoV-NL63 cytopathic effect in LLC-MK2 cells. Moreover, an analysis of SARS-CoV-2 infected Vero E6 cell lysate revealed significant dysregulation of autophagy and lysosomal function, suggesting a contribution of the lysosome to the life cycle of SARS-CoV-2. Our findings support targeting the lysosome to combat SARS-CoV-2 infections and inhibitors of lysosomal function could become an important component of drug combination therapies aimed at improving treatment and outcomes for COVID-19.

Chinese medicine (Q-14) in the Treatment of Patients with Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19): A Single-center, Open label, Randomised Controlled Trial (preprint)

OBJECTIVE To evaluate the efficacy and safety of Chinese medicine (Q-14) plus standard care compared with standard care alone in adult with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). Study DESIGN Single-center, open label, randomised controlled trial. SETTING Wuhan Jinyintan Hospital, Wuhan, China, February 27 to March 27, 2020. PARTICIPANTS 204 patients with laboratory confirmed COVID-19 were randomised in to treatment group and control group, which was 102 patients each group. INTERVENTIONS In treatment group, Q-14 was administrated at 10g (granules), twice daily for 14 days and plus standard care. In control group, patients were given standard care alone for 14 days. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE The primary outcome was conversion time of SARS-CoV-2 viral assay. Adverse events were analyzed in the safety population. RESULTS Among 204 patients, 195 were analyzed according to the intention to treat principle. There were 149 patients (71 vs. 78 in treatment group and control group respectively) turning to negative via SARS-CoV-2 viral assay. No statistically significance showed in conversion time between treatment group and control group (FAS: Median (IQR): 10.00 (9.00-11.00) vs. 10.00 (9.00-11.00); Mean rank: 67.92 vs. 81.44; P=0.051.). Time to recovery of fever was shorter in treatment group as compared in control group. The disappearance rate of symptom in cough, fatigue, chest discomfort was significantly higher in treatment group. In chest computed tomography (Chest CT) examinations, overall evaluation of chest CT examination after treatment compared with baseline showed more patients improved in treatment group .There were no significant differences in the other outcomes. CONCLUSION Administration of Q-14 on standard care for COVID-19 was useful for improvement of symptoms (such as fever, cough, fatigue and chest discomfort), while did not result in a significantly higher probability of negative conversion of SARS-CoV-2 viral assay. No serious adverse events were reported. TRIAL REGISTRATION ChiCTR2000030288

Continuity of services for patients with tuberculosis in China in the COVID-19 era (preprint)

It is crucial to maintain continuity of essential services for people affected by tuberculosis (TB). Efforts to deliver these essential services in many global settings have been complicated by the emergence and global spread of SARS-CoV-2 and the pandemic of COVID-19. Understanding how the COVID-19 pandemic has impacted the availability of TB diagnostic and treatment services is critical for identifying policies that can mitigate disruptions of these essential services. China has a dual burden of TB and COVID-19. We conducted a survey and collected data from 13 provinces in China to evaluate the early impact of COVID-19 on TB services and to document interventions that were adopted to maintain the continuity services for TB patients during the pandemic. We use these data to identify additional opportunities that will improve the ability of TB programs to maintain essential services during this crisis. While health systems and underlying epidemiology differ between countries, we believe that sharing China's experience can inform the design of locally tailored strategies to maintain essential TB services during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Citywide Nucleic Acid Screening of SARS-CoV-2 Infections in Post-lockdown Wuhan, China: Results and Implications (preprint)

Background: After the outbreak of Coronavirus disease in 2019 (COVID-19), stringent lockdown measures were imposed in Wuhan between January 23, 2020 and April 8, 2020. To provide evidence on the post-lockdown risk of COVID-19 epidemic in Wuhan, the city government conducted a citywide nucleic acid screening of SARS-CoV-2 infection between May 14 and June 1, 2020. Methods: All city residents aged [≥]6 years were potentially eligible to participate the screening programme. The rate of detection of asymptomatic infected cases was calculated, and their demographic and geographic distributions were investigated. ArcGIS 10.0 was used to draw a geographic distribution of asymptomatic infected persons. Results: The screening programme recruited a total of 9,899,828 persons (response rate, 92.9%). The screening found no newly confirmed patients with COVID-19, and identified 300 asymptomatic infected cases (detection rate 0.303/10,000). In addition, 107 of 34,424 previously recovered patients with a history of COVID-19 diagnosis were tested positive (relapse rate, 0.31%). Virus culture of SARS-CoV-2 was negative for all 300 asymptomatic cases and all 107 recovered COVID-19 patients. A total of 1,174 close contacts of asymptomatic cases were traced and all of them had a negative nucleic acid testing result. Conclusions: Prevalence of COVID-19 nucleic acid test positivity was very low in the Wuhan general population, in recovered cases and in contacts of asymptomatic cases, five to eight weeks after the end of lockdown. These findings help resolve concerns about the post-lockdown risk of COVID-19 epidemic, and promote the recovery of economy and normal social life in Wuhan.

Discovery of Anti-2019-nCoV Agents from 38 Chinese Patent Drugs toward Respiratory Diseases via Docking Screening (preprint)

The 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) causes novel coronavirus pneumonia (NCP). Given that approved drug repurposing becomes a common strategy to quickly find antiviral treatments, a collection of FDA-approved drugs can be powerful resources for new anti-NCP indication discoveries. In addition to synthetic compounds, Chinese Patent Drugs (CPD), also play a key role in the treatment of virus related infections diseases in China. Here we compiled major components from 38 CPDs that are commonly used in the respiratory diseases and docked them against two drug targets, ACE2 receptor and viral main protease. According to our docking screening, 10 antiviral components, including hesperidin, saikosaponin A, rutin, corosolic acid, verbascoside, baicalin, glycyrrhizin, mulberroside A, cynaroside, and bilirubin, can directly bind to both host cell target ACE2 receptor and viral target main protease. In combination of the docking results, the natural abundance of the substances, and botanical knowledge, we proposed that artemisinin, rutin, glycyrrhizin, cholic acid, hyodeoxycholic acid, puerarin, oleanic acid, andrographolide, matrine, codeine, morphine, chlorogenic acid, and baicalin (or Yinhuang Injection containing chlorogenic acid and baicalin) might be of value for clinical trials during a 2019-nCov outbreak.